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What would be the outcome if we had a second election?

Discussion in 'The Pub' started by Bravus, Aug 31, 2010.

  1. Another hung parliament

    9 vote(s)
  2. A Coalition government

    14 vote(s)
  3. A Labor government

    15 vote(s)
  1. There's a new poll this morning showing that 13% of people would change their vote if a new election is held: but not what they'd change it from and to.

    It's plausible to think that people have been reminded that their vote forms the government, and a 'protest vote' might be a luxury they can't really afford.

    I have some opinions, but I thought it might be fun to start the thread off with a poll first.
  2. Interesting question, perhaps a number of people who voted informal would have recorded a formal vote?

    If we go to the polls again, my vote will not change.
  3. Yeah, that was the other point, the relatively high number of 'donkey votes' (IMO only partly attributable to that ass Mark Latham): maybe people have also been reminded to value their democratic rights a little more highly.
  4. I would think that the informal votes would be much less. Given that the swing was away from labor you would have to conclude that a large portion of informal votes were those that couldn't bring themselves to vote for Abbott.

    I can't see how a reduction in informal voting could do the coalition any favors.
  5. I reckon we would be in the same position we are now......with 2 useless parties....

    i would hope it would be another hung parliament
  6. I think it would depend on who would get to wear the opprobium for forcing us back to the polls so soon. Given the pro-Coalition stance of the Murdoch media and their proxies at the ABC, I think that would (unfairly IMHO) be Labor. Hence I think we'd see an Abbott government.

    Agree with ibast on the informal vote issue. That would have been my motivation, had I done so, although, being in a safe Liberal seat, it wouldn 't have made much difference apart from to the national TPP figures.
  7. Or Vice-Versa. More people could switch from formal to informal votes in protest for a second election.
  8. The next election will probably see a rationalisation of the Greens vote; I don't think there's any doubt that a lot of people didn't want to vote for the Coalition, but protested the knifing of Rudd and voted Greens. I would doubt that they will get the same vote again, given these unique circumstances..
  9. My best guess - and I'm sure there's some wishful thinking in it, but hopefully that's not all - is that we'd end up with a Labor government with a clear majority.

    The reasoning is as follows:

    1. I think more of the informal votes are likely to have come from those on the Left, so if fewer people vote informal that would help them (someone further up the thread said the opposite, so YMMV).

    2. I think a lot of the 'protest vote' about the dumping of Rudd by people in Queensland will have had a chance to work itself out of the system, and people are more likely to vote on future leadership than that one issue.

    3. Almost all of the swing was Labor->Greens, only 0.6% was Labor->Liberal. As hornet said above, some of that is likely to swing back. Not sure how much difference it would make because Labor would have ended up with a lot of those on preferences anyway, but I wouldn't be surprised if Mr Wilikie was out again in Tasmania, for example.

    4. This one is a bit more biased, but I think Gillard has shown more competence in the wooing of the Independents, and that will have reassured people about her leadership going forward.

    5. Those who were rusted-on Liberals will remain that way, but IMO Abbott hasn't done a whole lot to reassure any waverers. He's managed to keep on keeping a low profile and a small target, but the absence of a negative is not really a positive.

    Very happy to see counter-arguments to one or more of these... and I notice that the poll disagrees with me at the time of this writing.
  10. 6. Ooops, was going to mention state issues in NSW and QLD. I don't think voters in those states are any happier with their state governments, but they may have already had a chance to have a slap at them in the first election, and now be ready to get serious about choosing a Federal government.

    Or not.
  11. 7. It would be very hard for Labor to run a worse election campaign and it would be very hard for the Coalition to run a better campaign.
  12. i love the poll atm,

    4 = hung
    and 8 each for the lab/lib

  13. What she said.
  14. funny thing is I actually clicked the wrong button, so one should be removed from the coalition and made informal.
  15. I think if they voted again, Labor would lose more votes to the Greens: simply because a lot of Labor voters are fed up with Labor but won't want to vote Coalition.

    I'd vote the same as I did again, if it came to it. Below the line, all the way, baby.
  16. Given the negative publicity for Abbott's unwillingness to submit his policies to Treasury I think the Coalition could struggle in another election.
  17. I wouldn't be suprised to see it back to a hung parliament a 2nd time, nothing either of the 2 major parties has done since the election has shown me that they have learnt anything.
    Neither of them has tapped into the reason why they are both on the nose so much with voters, and tried to connect with the public, Instead they have both continued the battle for power trying to woo the independents, almost a screw the voters as usual we only care about winning elections approach,

    The major parties seem to exist only for the gaining of power these days not the betterment of there constituents, and the greens loony edges leave them a debateable choice of doing any good, i guess the sex party is the safest vote, if they screw you too , at least there is a promise it may be good