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Wanna take a guess at the world's ultimate population figure??

Discussion in 'The Pub' started by hornet, Jun 2, 2012.

  1. It is an interesting presentation but he fails to mention that if births outnumber deaths then the population will continue to grow regardless of the rate.
  2. Ultimate population figure?


  3. I watched this video about a week ago, and that was one of his integral points, that mortality rates have a statistical correlation with birth rates, and that we are all gravitating to ~2 children per family, i.e. we are only replacing ourselves.
  4. Watch the video again, SRA. He does that thing with the boxes at the end. What he is demonstrating, using the boxes, is that, roughly speaking, births are only likely to outnumber deaths for the next three generations. With the global fertility rate now being approximately 2, it will take three generations for the world population to reach equilibrium, because there is a lag between average age at which people have their 2 sprogs and the average age when they finally fall off the perch.
  5. But isn't religion on of the main forces that work against his 4 factors...
  6. He clearly demonstrated that religion has no bearing; lower mortality rates and better access to family planning (e.g. contraception) have a bigger influence.
  7. No he didn't...

    Although he said that he demonstrated that religion had no bearing, all he actually demonstrated was that the flavour was unimportant.
  8. Anybody seen this other hans clip? http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_growth.html

    It's not focussed on religion, it's focussed on continental boundaries but apart from coming up with 9billion instead of 10billion people, it demonstrates the same thing - help a country get wealthier, give it family planning and it's number of babies per woman will drop. One thing he says in both clips though, is that this future is only viable if we can get green technologies into these developing countries so that energy remains relatively cheap and we avoid a catastrophic climate change.

    Interesting stuff.
  9. I don't think his recent talk was really focussing on religion, he just threw that in as a side plot as the talk was given in Qatar.
  10. Here's a better fact;

    There are 4 Billion Lego minifigures in the world today!



  11. I disagree. There is a scare campaign going on that Islam will take over the world due to it's birth rate. I found the talk informative and it highlighted that religion wasn't a population driver. It might be in pockets, but overall from a big picture POV, it's basic human nature and humans needs which is the key driver of how much we reproduce.
  12. As I've said before, I'm a lot more worried about being outbred by stupid people than I am about being outbred by Muslims.
  13. Too bloody right! Have you seen the movie Idiocracy?

  14. Then make some more babies.

    Indeed Rob, but that scare campaign has been going on for a couple years. And while I haven't been paying attention to the affairs of the world recently, my understanding was it has been dying down.
  15. I'd have liked to but for fairly substantial medical reasons, MrsB and I are out of that particular competition.
  16. Not yet, but I think I ought to. I'll be blaming you if it gives me nightmares though :D.
  17. Again this proves is that the flavour of religion isn't the driver.

    If I remember rightly the Islamic birth rate plumets once the Muslims get to secular Europe.