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Victoria failing to meet lower road toll target

Discussion in 'Research, Studies, and Data' started by Jeffco, Mar 14, 2016.

  1. A rise in the road toll in the past two years means Victoria is on track to miss its target of below 200 road deaths per year by 2020.

    Based on current trends, VicRoads' 2015 Road Trauma Report predicts the state will not meet its ambitious target for fewer fatalities.

    Road deaths rose for the first time in eight years in 2014, with four more people losing their lives than 2013's record low road toll of 243.

    The number of people involved in fatal crashes increased again last year, rising to 252.

    And in further bad news, 2016 is shaping up to see even more deaths than last year because of a record number of motorcyclist deaths.

    Roads Minister Luke Donnellan said the spike in motorcyclist fatalities over the summer was "very alarming".

    "Already this year, far too many people have been killed on our roads," he said. "These numbers represent real people who will be missed by their families, friends and colleagues."

    How Victoria's road toll has been tracking since 2011. On current trends, it is unlikely to fall below the 200 deaths a year target for 2020. Photo: VicRoads

    So far this year 69 people have died on the state's roads, compared with 57 at the same time in 2015.

    The report also found:

    • More people continue to be killed on country roads (136) than in metropolitan Melbourne (116).
    • 18 young drivers aged between 18 and 20 died on the roads last year, 10 more than in 2014.
    • 11 passengers aged between 17 and 20 were killed in crashes last year, seven more than in 2014. Nine of these people died in cars being driven by someone too young to have their full licence.
    • About three out of five road deaths occur when a car leaves the road and collides head on with a tree or another vehicle.
    • While the number of road deaths has risen in the past couple of years, the rate of road trauma per 100,000 has remained constant

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-failing-to-meet-lower-road-toll-target-20160313-gnhtfz.html#ixzz42pSLPMkf
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  2. You'd think they might examine their road safety initiatives seeing as they appear to not be working?
    • Agree Agree x 2
  3. In summary, all the campaigns TAC and Vicroads have implemented over the years have failed.....miserably.
    I wonder if they are smart enough to figure out why.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. Depends what the actual goal of the program was I guess?
    • Agree Agree x 3
  5. I would think it would be more representative if they graphed the death figures against population and/or registrations. Statistically, as the number of people on or using roads increases, so would you would expect the number of accidents to increase. In 2012 the population was approximately 5.6 million in 2020 it is projected to be about 6.5 million ( Source Victoria Future 2015). An increase of 900,000 who are not allowed to be involved in any accidents.

    By simplistically graphing deaths against years, and having a target of 200, just produces alarming results that justify more draconian measures and revenue raising.

    The main aim should be to have a ongoing decline in deaths per population with a corresponding target which is a percentage of the deaths per population.
    • Like Like x 3
    • Agree Agree x 3
  6. Statistical absolutes rather than relating to VKT will emphasise the old adage that you can use statistics to prove anything.

    With a doubling of motorcycle registrations and kilometres travelled our accident rate has shown a steady decline, but for any records there will always be spikes in one direction or another. The preponderance of SMIDSY and unlicensed rider deaths this year is alarming, yet the latter is historically so much lower as to be almost unnoticed in previous years. That alone should be addressed if the Powers That Be are serious about reigning in the road toll.

    And a serious approach to driver education instead of 1) blaming the victims and 2) promoting secondary safety (wearing gear) rather than primary safety (advanced rider training, driver education). Lets face it, they get ~$7 or 8 million a year out of us from the MSL.
    • Agree Agree x 3
  7. Well their initiatives and escalation of initiatives (when it doesn't work) basically mirrors "The beatings will continue until morale improves!"
    • Agree Agree x 4
    • Like Like x 1
  8. So your telling me all this TAC and Vicroads has failed?
    -We have forced learners to wear fluro jackets (100% protection against drivers not seeing bikes)
    -Increased LAMS/No pillion to 3 years, new graduated licence structure
    -Replaced 90/70km/h zones to 80/ 60km/h to make it "less confusing for drivers"
    -Increased the number of speed cameras and lowered their tolerances
    -Changed the rule for P-Platers punishing them if they accumulate any points and suspending them if they get more than 5 points a year
    -Implemented draconian hooning laws where a single wheelie or skid can get your bike impounded
    -Installed then tried to justify afterwards the cheese graters along motorways and highways
    -Recruit police officers to pull over and hand out TAC propaganda on motorcyclist hotspots like the spur
    -Made hippie loving flower sniffing community focused adverts adverts promoting everyone's special and that no one should die on the roads.
    -Now blaming accidents on the driver not having collision avoidance, lane keeping technology
    -Pushing through new laws to reduce the CBD and school zones to 30km/h
    • Like Like x 2
    • Informative Informative x 1
  9. Sadly TAC and Vicroads thoughts on this is that those measures have saved further lives... and then they stare down the camera and say "every life matters" as if that means anyone who dares question them, doesn't care about saving lives.
  10. It might be enlightening for the researchers to get their heads out of the stats sheets and actually looked at what people on doing on the road.
    In looking at this years bike spike, the only thing that they came up with was a preponderance of men over 35. But that's not anything new - the majority of riders has been tending toward men over 35 for quite a few years, and until last month it didn't reflect in an increasing casualty rate. So effectively they are saying a non-change in a factor is causal. That's just nonsense.

    A few hours on the Western Highway yesterday afternoon might have taught them more. The incidence of incomprehensible behaviours by drivers is rising at an alarming rate IMO. You can just see these drooling morons are not in control of what they are doing and cannot possibly keep doing this shit without crashing. I watched THREE cars just drive off the side of the road for no reason. Then rejoin traffic without even looking. Half a dozen near rear-enders at speed. WTF?
    • Agree Agree x 2
  11. Fatalities only show one side of the story, how about moderate/serious but non fatal which you would expect from your garden variety learner crash.

    Like you I have seen drivers behind the wheel that shouldn't be even let out in public without a minder!
    Good thing the TAC are pushing for them to be cushioned by technology as opposed to addressing the real root problems like fatigue/distractions or lack of education on how to control the car or better yet taking them off the road.

  12. Literally an hour ago, saw the very fresh aftermath of a car failing to negotiate a roundabout safely and spearing off into the corner house's front yard.

    There is something in the water?!
  13. Its an epidemic sweeping the nation.
  14. Which one is it? At first people are saying the stats show nothing has changed, and now people are saying it's getting worse.
  15. Although not trying to trivialise the fact lives have been lost an increase of 4 deaths from 248 to 252 is not a statistically significant increase. In statistical terms it's stable.

    These reports tend to use statistics where it proves their argument and then refer to individual 'case studies' where the agenda isn't simply supported by facts.
  16. #17 trd2000, Mar 15, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2016
    you mean like claiming speed cameras have resulted in less deaths because statistically theres a drop...... while ignoring every other factor? or statistically blaming motorcycles for high numbers of injuries and ignoring the case studies that show its often the result of inattentive drivers?

    yeah.... stats get misrepresented all the time, but to ignore the change to trend "because its just a blip" in spite of recent efforts is silly..... at some stage we have to say, hey, what we did there didn't actually work, or maybe we should try something else cause we increased effort and got negative results..... maybe those last couple of years of dressing in cammo and hiding in bushes wasn't actually as effective as, say, raising the highway speed limit to combat fatigue.

    also... it was 4 per year for 2 years.... so there's a little bit of consistency there.
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  17. I suppose that in my little corner of experience this could have been going on for a while, and I only really notice when speeds around me get above inner city walking pace. Maybe the driving behaviour has been degrading for some years, while vehicle engineering and medicine has been masking the trauma rate until now?
    Reviewing the messages from police who at least see the on-the-spot situations, they've been calling for more courtesy and care, whereas the researchers just want lower speeds.
  18. Again, this is an absolute number of deaths without reflecting the proportionate increase in vehicles on the road and/or VKT: both of which will have also increased.

    Against this should also be considered the injury/serious injury numbers with any correlation between one rising against one falling.
  19. I'll have to update this for 2011 - 2015, but here is the motorcycle fatality rate and fatality count story up to 2010.

    Green is absolute count. Blue is the rate per 10000 motorcycle registrations.

    Victorian road toll graph and rate to 2011.
    • Like Like x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1