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VIC Vic Motorcycle road toll - what's the agro about?

Discussion in 'Politics, Laws, Government & Insurance' started by robsalvv, Jan 5, 2011.

  1. Check out these links:


    The current motorbike road toll might be 32% more than last year, but it's only 5 more than the 5 year average.

    Last year was one of the lowest motorcycle road tolls on record.

    5 more than the 5 year average isn't a disaster of titanic proportions. That makes me wonder about all the agro and whoopala against motorcyclists... seems like more of the same negative political population brainwashing PR machinery, grabbing some outlying extreme result, spinning it up to all proportions and using it to justify extreme action.

    What's that saying about statistics??

    5 more brothers/sisters down is regrettable - don't get me wrong, but it's worth bringing some objectivity into this debate.
  2. statistics are in the eye of the believer.
  3. Yep, in a small sample, a small deviation from the average produces a large % difference. Right you are Rob. These schmuks choose to use percentages to maximise their desired impact.
  4. nobody takes a long term view on anything these days. Any comparison seems to only ever be made on the immediately preceding dataset. On anything. There also seems to be a mindset that the trend in anything can only be one-way, be it road trauma, share prices or anything else. Any time this trend is revers is must be a 'bad thing' even if that reversal is simply a return to normality
  5. They will just spin the statistics to suit their perfidy.
    Bloody beancounters, reducing human lives to mathematical statistics to satisfy their work performance appraisals. Government asswipes. Probably not a rider among them.
  6. Rob, you are preaching to the choir, but you already knew that.

    What you are saying here, and in other threads should be taken to the goverment by your state motorcycling body, isn't that what they are there for. They need to get involved in the decision making process.

    It can be done. The MCC(NSW) has a seat on the The Motorcycle Ministerial Advisory Council, The Motor Accidents Advisory Council and The Road Safety Advisory Council.

    This was achieved through well planned and organised lobying and a very well planned and organised protest.

  7. You can not win with Govt. Up here we have just had a record low toll for the past year, so they use that to say how well their covert speed cameras are doing and to justify the increase to up to 100 of them by July 2011.

    So if it is a bad year, more speed camera are needed, if it is a good year, more speed cameras are needed.

  8. If you take the uncertainty into account, using the 5 year data a 95% prediction interval for the number of motorcycle fatalities in 2010 was from 32 to 56. As 49 is clearly within that range there is no evidence of any increase in the underlying rate.
    Unfortunately politicians TAC, Vicroads etc only look at the averages and ignore the precision.
  9. #9 robsalvv, Jan 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 24, 2015
    The only thing people (pollies/police/media) seem to understand is absolute numbers. October had a high number of fatalities. Radio jocks were going gaga that it was highest in 20 years & that something had to be done... Well, statistically it was still a drop. It was a few more than the record 20 yrs ago but there's more than double the number of riders now.

    Also the whole road safety stats system is politically focussed on year to year comparisons with occasional longer term reports... & the competition between states is incredible too... The Ken Lays of each state get into pissing contests... This is a deep & darkly entrenched aspect of our society out of kilter with other priorities.

    Apparently road deaths/casualties cost Australia $18b a year. Wonder how much Macca's costs society in avoidable health related deaths?

    - - -
  10. While any fool who could look out a window would have noticed that it was a wet and miserable Winter, and that October was the first month that weekend riders got out again. Hence a peak in crashes. Duh.

    It seems that the pollies/police/media don't look out the window, or think.
  11. They haven't met their predetermined target of 237, and they'll keep squealing until they do. No surprise there.

    The problem as we all know is that there is far more to this issue than just enforcement but VP aren't able to control other aspects, and so far Vicroads/TAC/VicGov haven't been willing to look elsewhere. VP need to stop pretending that it's all their responsibility and accept it belongs to the whole of government. And of course, us.

    Even KL in his last weeks in the job was starting to suggest that law-breaking wasn't the whole story.
  12. There is some acceptance that enforcement is no longer the key lever to employ - this is evident in the Draft national road strategy. The road toll is no longer all about law breakers. The draft strategy says that a new mode of thinking is needed.

    The paradigm shift for the next 10 years is right out of vision zero handbook: Safe roads, Safe Speeds, Safe Vehicles, Safe People. There is little place for motorcycling in this strategy. Congestion and other urban issues have no place in the strategy either... it's all about driving the road toll down. Infact congestion is a good outcome - no one dies on congested roads.

    There is almost NOTHING in the strategy about better training or continued competency to use the roads. It's all about idiot proofing the road system so that driver mistakes can be tolerated. That includes technical solutions to control speed, lowering speed limits, improving roads and roadsides and also safer cars - cars that take the complexity out of driving and are more tolerant of crashes. In other words, idiot proofing the road system.

    That's the paradigm shift that's being touted - to idiot proof the roads.

    However, enforcement is still a key plank to ensure that road users remain compliant with the new more limiting rules and speeds. :roll:

    Seriously, if we all just commented on one stupid aspect of the new draft road strategy, it would help tie up the bureaucrats and get them to justify themselves.


    Feb 11th comments have to be in.
  13. Think I mentioned this in another thread. After my dealings with the Euro equiv. of this. Motorcycles are seen as off roads by 2025. Not by direct decree, but through incremental saftey requirements that bikes can never achieve.