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The numbers MUST mean something

Discussion in 'Politics, Laws, Government & Insurance' started by hornet, Jul 27, 2005.

  1. So here's the conundrum.
    Comparing 2005 to 1985, just for a hypothetical sample.
    We have higher population +
    We have more vehicles, and almost certainly more bikes +
    Our roads are better in some places, but inconsistently so ~ (neutral)?
    Bikes are faster and accelerate faster than ever before +
    Speed limits are lower than ever before -
    Safety gear, (leathers, back protectors, etc) are better than ever before +
    Road toll among riders is lower than ever before -

    Does this mean then that despite the fact that bikes can go faster than ever before, lower speed limits have led to a lower road toll???

    There must be a zillion random influencing and variable factors in this equation (and perhaps even the premises themselves may not be accurate?)

    So, what about it, (Dan, you think about this stuff a lot, a considered response, statistically-driven, mate)
  2. If you want to make massive leaps of logic like that, go for it... you're not alone, our governments do it every day. They've lowered the speed limits, that MUST be the reason the road toll is lower. Let's ignore strictly enforced drink driving laws, red light cameras, stricter licencing & training, rider safety equipment, widespread helmet use, mechanical safety improvements (to cars & bikes), road blackspot upgrades and a whole lot of other things, it's the SPEED LIMITS that have saved the lives! Quick roll out more cameras, and it will surely go down.

    Government: If we slow motorbikes down, when they crash, it won't be as bad right? Sorry? Why did the bike crash in the first place you ask?... hmmm we don't care, we just want to make sure it wasn't going to hit that other car too hard.

    Homer: Ah, not a bear in sight. The Bear Patrol must be working.
    Lisa: That's specious reasoning, Dad.
    Homer: Thank you, honey.
    Lisa: [picks up rock] By your logic, this rock keeps tigers away.
    Homer: Oh? How does it work?
    Lisa: It doesn't work.
    Homer: Uh-huh.
    Lisa: It's just a stupid rock.
    Homer: Uh-huh.
    Lisa: But I don't see any tigers around here, do you?
    Homer: Lisa, I want to buy your rock!
    [A moment's hesitation; then money changes hands to a resigned Lisa.]

    (From The Simpsons - Much Apu About Nothing.)
  3. Leaps of logic

    I'm not making leaps of logic, I'm on your side, and you've just stated 7 contributing factors which fall into the "zillions of variables" basket in my second-last para. My question which you quoted was rhetorical, of course.
    The unanswerable question, I suspect, is to what extent lower speed limits IN ISOLATION from other improvements, impact on those stats?
  4. Re: Leaps of logic

    Didn't think you were, I was on the well worn soapbox as usual. :)
  5. Re: Leaps of logic

    It would be nice to be able to isolate one factor from the array of changes that Australian motoring has undergone in the last 20 years... to an extent it can be done, but as with all statistics and logical arguments, both sides of the debate can use the same figures to get different answers.

    Have a look at this site:

    You will notice that there are no clean explanations as to why the road toll fluctuates like it does. It's all very subjective and controversial.
  6. does anybody have the actual figures of the decline in motorcycle accidents?

    eg how much it has reduced, reduction in minor accidents as well as fatalities?
  7. Re: Leaps of logic

    compulsory rider training!
  8. Re: Leaps of logic

    I eluded to that it my first post - I personally beleive it's the biggest factor in reducing the M/C road toll, esp in the younger riders group.
  9. Why MUST the numbers mean something?

    Remember, we live in a random chaotic universe subject to the butterfly effect.

    A drop in the road toll could be the result of childhood vacine programs and asbestos free building practices for all we know, not to mention rapant wowserism amontst the parental and government sets...
  10. [Spelling Nazi] No you didn't. You "alluded" to it. If you "elude" something you're avoiding it (eg "eluding capture").

    "Alluding" to something means to refer to it. As in an "allusion". (Which is different to an "illusion". Or a "delusion"...) [/Spelling Nazi] :p
  11. Re: Leaps of logic

    Even though it's minimal (at least here in Vic) you're probably right that it has made a difference, it's minimal though I think. Mate of mine went for his bike license umpteen years ago on his custom Kwaka z650, up the road, do a uturn, don't fall off. congrats here's your license.

    I had to do the various turns, emergency stops, countersteering etc but the day I went for my p's was about 40 C so the instructor concerned just wanted to get the day over and done with.

    I can't honestly say that my countersteering techinique was any better at the end of the day than at the start of the day and I daresay most of the others that were in the group would be the same, having said that it was good enough that he was happy to give licenses to all and sundry, one of the problems with the system of privatising the motorcycle licensing system here I think, private agencies just want the money when it's all said and done.
  12. doesn't show how many riders for each category.

    plus 17-25 is only 9 years of age difference - low numbers?

    26-39 is 15 - Moderate numbers

    40-....old is a lot more. - Moderate-Higher numbers?
  13. Someone has posted too many numbers in this thread and it is making it annoying to try and read.
  14. Or that all those that are to die, get injured etc, already have????????
    :roll: :wink: :wink: