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VIC Social engineering & the perspective of time

Discussion in 'Politics, Laws, Government & Insurance' started by Chef, Oct 11, 2011.

  1. http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/01/18/1074360633943.html 2004

    Has their experiment failed or has it been a success? How do you measure it?

    MUARC 2004

    To understand the politicking taking place right now around motorcycles and the road toll in Victoria, start here with the article linked above. It's a big one and it's a doozy. It underpins everything we are seeing today.

    There is so much gold to be found by digging through the article I'd have to quote the whole thing. Feel free to quote the parts that strike a chord with you.

    ...it's important to remember this though, this article is not about revenue raising, it very specifically says it's not. The public duped itself into believing it is. This is about Pavlov's Dog.


  2. How about this doozy. . .
    "I'm going to say something I'll probably regret," says Ian Johnston, the director of Monash University's Accident Research Centre, which provided the research and arguments that underpin the Government's speed strategy. "It has been very convenient (for governments) to go along with the community belief that it's all about bad behaviour, because then you don't have to invest so much in infrastructure."

    Then there's this report from 2005, http://www.monash.edu.au/pubs/monmag/issue15-2005/opinion/roadtoll.html

    My favourite bits . . .
    'Until the late 1960s/early 1970s, road safety policy lacked an evidence base. But over the next decade the discipline of 'traffic safety science' emerged -- not a science in its own right but a confluence of the disciplines of epidemiology, public health, engineering, psychology, mathematics and statistics, and trauma medicine. ' and

    'Given the evidence of the relationship between travel speed and crash probability, the low impact speed thresholds for pedestrian injury and the frequency of death and injury in metropolitan Melbourne, MUARC recommended speed reduction measures, estimating that a reduction of even a few kilometres per hour in average urban travel speeds would lead to a significant overall reduction in deaths and serious injury.

    The Victorian Government then:
    •reduced the general urban speed limit from 60 to 50 km/h;
    •removed the 'enforcement tolerance' (previously there was a tolerance of around 10 per cent or 10 km/h above the limit before a speeding ticket was issued, making the effective speed limit well above the posted limit);
    •dramatically increased the level of enforcement by mobile speed cameras;
    •made the enforcement more covert (based on MUARC research of effectiveness); and
    •supported the program with extensive public education campaigns.'

    So no more arguing about who is to blame for the above dot points eh.
  3. That's a Bobby Dazzler.

    No mention of motorcycles in their road 'safety' paradigm. It reads as,
    Cars hitting each other slowly = good
    Cars hitting pedestrians = Bad
    Motorcycles......what's a fucking motorcycle?
  4. My question is that if the whole "speed" issue is what's working - why is it that the number of people being booked for speeding continues to rise?
    • Like Like x 2
  5. Car safety has come on leaps and bounds this decade. So more injuries and accidents, but less deaths. Whats does that point to? Not the governments work IMO
  6. Since introducing the lower speed limits it's been an ongoing process of strict enforcement, followed by further reductions in the speed limit. Meaning as soon their measurements indicate there is compliance, they simply lower the limits again causing the infringements to rise.

    It's a process of boiling the frogs slowly. They're already beginning to state what their target speeds are to measure public acceptance and to see how high the frogs jump. Our speeds will be in line with the Vision Zero nations we are following. Soon we will be doing 30km/h in residential streets.


    This dates back to 2005, I wonder what the table looks like now and where I can find one?

  7. I remember seeing a chart on another forum that weighed road deaths against population, given the rise in population, the road deaths remained essentially static for the past 100 years...

    I'll see if I can dig it out.
  8. Found!

    An interesting overview... Although I stole these from another forum & I have not confirmed the data...

  9. I wish I could find the data that illustrates that.
  10. From my link above

    1980: 3272 fatalities, 32064 Serious injuries
    2006: 1602 fatalities, 32264 Serious injuries

    So fatalities are down with the same serious injuries. BTW devils advocate, you could argue that serious injuries are prevented by safety improvements in cars as well. Maybe fatalities to crashes would be interesting.
  11. YES! They can't be succeeding in creating greater compliance, but catching an increasing number of offenders (and as saying that it's still the greatest problem) at the same time. It's impossible. And it's driving me NUTS.
    I need a lie down.
  12. I just started a thread asking for help searching actually.

    I'm after total crashes (not just police reported) verses fatalities/injuries (roadtoll)

    To set about proving that while the road toll maybe down the roads are more dangerous for vulnerable road users.
  13. I suspect that you are right on this one. Proving it is harder.

    Not sure how you will get reliable data on non reported accidents.

    Edit: the insurance companies might have some idea?
  14. LMAO....you do need a lie down mate.

    Social Engineering - Compliance of the masses 101

    Lower the speed limit
    Fine the shit out of people
    Average speed drops
    Roadtoll drops
    Increase enforcement
    Fine the shit out of people
    Roadtoll drops

    Lower the speed limits some more
    Add more cameras
    Lower tolerances
    Fine the absolute shit out of people
    Average speed drops
    Roadtoll drops

    It's the big stick approach as referred to in the first article linked to.
    There is a lag between enforcement and compliance but compliance eventually catches up. As soon as it does they move the markers and go harder. The lacker band effect.

    That's why they can claim compliance is working while fines continue to increase. From the original article...

    3km/h is a little result for a big effort, but it's a significant result.

    Vicroads (or MUARC) wont just be monitoring speeds, they'll be monitoring public attitudes closely as well. Once the populace is accepting of the program they implement and enforce it immediately.

    The most obvious one they're working on right now is 30km/h limits in residential areas. They will implement the program into the softest target, the CBD. From there it will spread to pedestrian rich roads, i.e. Chapel St, Lygon St, Brunswick Rd. Then into school zones in back streets, paving the way for 40km/h on residential roads. Whether they shoot for 30km/h is up for grabs, but that's what they're aiming for overseas.

    A hypothetical - If they're slowing us down 3km/h per year, how many years until they reach their target?

    If they cannot find the statical evidence to support their program they will simply wait until a single tragic accident occurs and will use the public outcry to leverage off. We see them use that to implement hoon laws.

    Social Engineering - We're being programmed
  15. I would like to see the number of registered cars per population in Norway and Sweden, as well as number of km travelled per population.
  16. Might be worth noting that Japan, with fewer deaths per population than us, set speed limits low but will not actually ping you until 20 to 30km over the posted limit. As a road user over there I found it works really really well. Most people just drive at a speed that is comfortable for them.
  17. Difficult to find - this paper has some figures but it's a little old.


    This one however has a wealth of stuff.

    It's the OECD's International Traffic Safety Data and Analysis Group
    very interesting...

    I haven't gone through it in any detail but it contains:

    Detailed reports from 27 countries, focusing on :
    • Latest data for the year 2008 and in some cases preliminary data for 2009.
    • Analysis of safety trends by road user category, by age group and by road type.
    • Analysis of specific safety issues such as: speeding, drink driving, and the wearing of seat belt and helmets.
    • The national strategies in place in IRTAD countries, including targets and performance towards meeting the targets.
    • Measures implemented in 2007-2009 to improve safety.
    • Recent safety research.