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[QLD] Road toll update - Motorcycle fatalities

Discussion in 'Politics, Laws, Government & Insurance' at netrider.net.au started by John_M, Jul 26, 2010.

  1. It seems every workday in Brisbane on the morning radio road reports we hear the line, "a motorcycle and a car have come together", or "an accident involving a car and a motorcycle", or something similar. Then over recent days and last night, there's been a couple more rider fatalities:
    • 3 days ago at Jimboomba, southwest of Brisbane, a 64-year-old riding a Harley-Davidson was killed as he turned into a wide, sweeping driveway when he was struck from behind by a Toyota Camry towing a trailer :( :mad:
    • A 43 year old rider died last night when he reportedly clipped a car while traveling at 170 kph on the Pacific Motorway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast :mad: :( .
    I've looked up the Transport & Main Roads road toll figures. Here's how Qld is fairing for 2010 so far:

    Motorcycle and pillion fatalities: 2005 33, 2006 29, 2007 40, 2008, 40, 2009 46, 2010 up to 25th July = 27. EDIT NOTE: These are for first 7 months only of each year. Please see corrected figures for 2005-2009 in post below.
    These 27 deaths to-date projected equates to 47 by year end - as bad as last year and possibly the worst result for years.

    For all road users Australia-wide during the 12 months 1 July 2009 to 30 June 2010, there were 1,431 road fatalities within Australia, which is 102 fatalities (or 6.7%) fewer than the same period for the previous year. The following are the state figures and percentage differences with 2008/09:
    VIC: 5.48 +3.6%
    ACT: 5.64 +51.1%
    QLD: 6.04 -24.9%
    NSW: 6.34 +3.6%
    SA: 7.22 -9.0%
    WA: 8.19 -9.9%
    NT: 15.37 -38.9%
    Australia Total: 6.46 -8.5%

    The Australian road fatalities per 100 million Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) have been steadily decreasing over the last 10 years: from 0.91 in 2001 to 0.65 in 2009. State by state:
    ACT: 0.35
    VIC: 0.48
    QLD: 0.66
    NSW: 0.69
    WA: 0.73
    SA: 0.79
    TAS: 1.22
    NT: 1.59
    Australia: 0.65

    A quick simplistic review of the above tells me that overall in Australia, the trend is improvement. My guess is that this is mostly due to vehicle technology improving occupant safety. For Qld alone we are doing better overall.

    However for motorcycle fatalities in QLD, we look likely to have an end of 2010 figure as bad as 2009. In fact from the 29-33 numbers of 4/5 years ago to mid-40s is a 50% increase. Is it any wonder the "authorities" are looking closely at us?
  2. To be honest, every year there is more bikes on the road so more accidents and fatals can be expected.
    instead of comparing each years total fatalities and tut tutting because it's increasing, compare them to fatals per total registered motorcycle each year
  3. so from that quick description at the top, the weekends fatalities were 50% not at fault, and 50% stupidity.
  4. Excellent idea blocka. I started this thread because of 2 recent local fatalities and hearing the morning radio so often reporting motorcycle accidents. However I have done some checking on the motorcycle fatality rate as a function of the number of bikes registered (for Qld only - sorry everyone else :). I've taken the numbers off the TMR web site reports and constructed a couple of graphs. The following shows the number of motorcycles registered in Qld since 1922:


    Now to take the rego data over the last 15 years (1994 to 2009) and overlay the motorcyclist/pillion fatality rate. Here's the data for Qld:
    Year	Regos	Fatals	Rate
    1994	70,323	45	6.4
    1995	71,336	54	7.6
    1996	72,310	41	5.7
    1997	72,104	43	6.0
    1998	74,010	25	3.4
    1999	73,367	41	5.6
    2000	74,363	33	4.4
    2001	77,274	29	3.8
    2002	81,278	53	6.5
    2003	85,566	42	4.9
    2004	92,174	48	5.2
    2005	101,656	[COLOR="red"]33	3.2[/COLOR]
    2006	115,870	[COLOR="red"]29	2.5[/COLOR]
    2007	130,786	[COLOR="red"]40	3.1[/COLOR]
    2008	145,513	[COLOR="red"]40	2.7[/COLOR]
    2009	155,220	[COLOR="red"]46	3.0[/COLOR] 
    EDIT NOTE: Please see corrected figures for 2005-2009 in post below.

    EDIT NOTE: Please see corrected graph in post below.

    My graph shows:
    1. The total registrations per annum as the blue/grey bars (see left side axis). Note the trend up, particularly over the last 5 years.
    2. The fatality rate: number of fatals per annum per 10,000 registrations as the red line (see right side axis). Note the decreasing trend line overall.
    So with this comparison, it seems the fatality rate is trending down even though exposure (number of bikes on the roads) in increasing.
    Have I got this wrong?
  5. so there's almost 100% more bikes on the road compared to 10yrs ago, and a 25% less fatalities compared the same (i know it's not exact, i'm too lazy to calculate)

    so exactly WHY are they up our asses whenever we decide it's our right as human beings to draw breath?
  6. Well done John M someone needs to show that data to powers that be.
  7. Sorry - I made a boo-boo

    :( Sorry everyone.

    In my first post and the rate graph, I unfortunately mistakenly took the last 5 years' motorcycle fatality numbers from a "weekly comparative" report on the TMR site, rather than a "full year" report. This means the numbers I used fro 2005-2009 were a comparison for the first 7 months of those years only. The full-year figures are a little higher and so worse. :confused::eek:

    Here are the corrected numbers for Qld motorcycle and pillion fatalities:
    2005 64 (not 33)
    2006 58 (not 29)
    2007 73 (not 40)
    2008 72 (not 40)
    2009 60 (not 46)
    2010 up to 25th July = 27.

    Here to is the corrected graph:


    It obviously shows a less dramatic improvement in rate than previously incorrectly portrayed, and not so stable over the last 4 years, but still the lowest rate for 2009.

    My apologies again for the error.
  8. Good work John.
    Have a read of this blog post of mine which shows a related picture for QLD.