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Northern Ireland Motorcycle Fatality Report - an indepth study on crashes. ABS not of significant be

Discussion in 'Research, Studies, and Data' started by TonyE, Jun 29, 2012.

  1. An interesting document.

    you'll appreciate the following comments on ABS.

    A new motorcycle accident study from Northern Ireland has warned that ABS braking systems are no replacement for effective rider and driver training

    A recently released motorcycle accident study that examines a number of fatal motorcycle collisions in Northern Ireland between 2004 and 2010 has called for a stronger emphasis on rider/driver hazard perception training, rather than focusing simply on the adoption of automotive technologies such as ABS (anti-lock braking systems).

    Titled Northern Ireland Motorcycle Fatality Report 2012, the study was conducted by a collaboration of academics on behalf of the Northern Ireland riders' rights group, Right to Ride Ltd. The paper takes an in-depth look at a total of 36 motorcycle accidents which resulted in the deaths of 41 motorcyclists, and attempts to analyse the widely varying conditions and circumstances that led to each -- and their underlying causal factors -- before making recommendations that may potentially reduce motorcycle fatalities.

    With the proposal of mandatory ABS systems currently before the law-makers of the European Union, in its recommendations the paper has called for caution when it comes to the adoption of technology. "This [ABS] technology is relevent in some circumstances but not all," the paper states. "At this point in time, the application of ABS is limited to straight sections of road; it is not yet designed to work when the motorcycle is in a lean. The development of braking systems that can function as efficiently when the motorcycle is leaning either left or right may improve casualty rates. However, care should be taken about too much focus on technology rather than on good training and attitude," it continues.

    The paper identifies that in two of the 39 accidents, the deaths of the riders involved may have been prevented had their bikes been fitted with ABS systems.

    Available at http://www.righttoride.eu/virtuallibrary/ridersafety/Northern_Ireland_Motorcycle_Fatality_Report_2012.pdf
  2. Re: Northern Ireland Fatality Report - an indepth study on crashes

    Cheers Tony.

    What do you think of a criticism I've heard that the sample reflects the bias of the chief author who is on the record as being against the EU proposal for mandatory ABS?

    You're right, the comments are spot on. :)
  3. Re: Northern Ireland Fatality Report - an indepth study on crashes

    As with all research, it's necessary to take account of who commissioned and funded it but it's no worse in that regard than most of the studies used by opponents of motorcycling to foist shit on us so I'd regard it as useful.
  4. Re: Northern Ireland Fatality Report - an indepth study on crashes

    She's not against ABS but against mandating it. She acknowledges the cases where it has saved people but believes there are other things that need to be emphaised in the way of training and situational awareness that would have more effect.

    I don't see that as having a specific bias - less of a bias than the people who have had kneejerk reactions to mandate it.
  5. Re: Northern Ireland Fatality Report - an indepth study on crashes

    I hear ya Tony and agree. It's just that that's the criticism against it.

    It's almost heretical to argue that ABS doesn't provide a statistically significant improvement to fatality avoidance. NHSTA has a similar study that suggests the same.

    It stands to reason. It's the decisions that riders make which has the most significant impact on a rider's safety.

    Edit: modified the title...
  6. I know that if I'd had ABS on the Sportster that I came off then I probably wouldn't have highsided when I regained traction after hitting the oil. That would have saved me three months off work and a load of scrap metal in my arm.

    But while one occasion in 40 years odd is personally significant, is it statistically significant when it comes to mandating it? My suspicion is that there is a significant effect on crashes from ABS - not as big as the more fanatical proponents have and not significant enough to mandate it on everything, but still significant.
    • Like Like x 2
  7. Like most governments, mandatory ABS would then give free reign to brush aside motorcycle safety as an ongoing concern. Its sad that people out there feel the need to argue against mandatory ABS because of concerns regarding insufficient rider training. That to me speaks volumes about the government, not the general public.
  8. I find this research interesting. It reminds me of research on cars when ABS was reasonably new, showing that motorists with ABS didn't actually have any less accidents than those with it. ABS let them have more confidence, they drove closer to the car in front, and didn't hit the pedals hard enough early enough. Result, just as many rear end collisions.

    I wonder if using fatalities may not be the whole picture though. ABS may be able to reduce the number of non-fatal slides and minor accidents due to remaining in control of the bike, particularly for less capable riders.

    As for mandating it, this seems a little strange when lots of current systems come with the option of being turned off.
  9. Well they're in for a rude shock then.

    It also speaks a fair bit about riders who haven't had enough invested in their own riding ability to take some time out to improve themselves.
  10. Thats an awfully long bow to draw and i get the impression your trolling, however do carry on with how you come to this conclusion? My comments are in regards to how governments generally provide band aid solutions with no real long term plans.
  11. My comment is utterly consistent with the other half dozen times I've made it. And it's only a long bow to those not in the know. It's perfectly logical.

    You CANNOT reinterpret MAIDS or HURT to show that ABS would have made a significant impact - despite both indicating a fair percentage of overbraking errors. So bang! before you even start, the discussion is over. But let's continue.

    The view that ABS won't help has been supported by at least two independent studies, one from the NHTSA and one from Ireland (both with some problems mind you, but the message is clear, ABS wouldn't have made a statistically significant difference to the indepth study outcomes).

    ABS only corrects an over braking error, NOT the series of decisions or lack of observations that got you INTO the position that you need to ebrake. A rider who rides blithely will still crash, collide, overcook a corner, ride straight off straight roads (that's an increasing one in Vic for some reason) or be mowed down by ROW's like they do right now.

    If you overbrake and slide, you're now in the hands of physics and your velocity trajectory. If ABS keeps you upright instead, you're still in the hands of physics and still on the same path since there's no directional control under ABS braking. But you will have a predetermined deceleration rate that's higher than sliding. Will that rate be enough? Will the riders panic grabbing the brakes, have the wherewithall to release them when they get to a manoevring speed in order to ride around the obstacle? ...assuming of course they slow to a manouvreing speed BEFORE they collide...

    ABS is likely to reduce nuisance drops.

    ABS will save some injuries... unless riders risk compensate.

    You will not see a step change in fatalities unless the fundamental information guiding the motorcycle is different.
    • Like Like x 3
  12. Im only talking about how governments would be likely to introduce mandatory ABS and thus brush aside the ongoing concern of motorcycle safety. Your looking at it one dimensionally. Im saying there will be NO direct negative effects of mandatory ABS, however the side effect is that the government will treat that as a "solution" which it isnt. The solution is an action learning approach where changes are made, measured, analysed, refined, and reintroduced as an ongoing effort. But seeing as we both seem to clash particularly when it comes to ABS, can you provide any evidence/instances of your own personal experience, or other forums members who would be willing to contribute on their own behalf where ABS has degraded their braking performance, or increased their likelihood of an accident. Whilst i couldnt give a hoot whether ABS is mandated or not, im still a firm believer that it does provide a safer motorcycle, and I and many others would still argue it IS NOT a substitute for rider training. That argument was put to bed a long time ago.
    • Like Like x 1
  13. And I said that it wouldn't make a difference to fatality stats. So then why the rush to ABS by governments or anyone? :-k And if they consider motorcycle safety case closed, well they'll be in for a rude shock. Fark, is there an echo in the room?

    So you'll just happily cast aside that most of the justifications for ABS are flawed? And this is based on YOU perceiving that there wont be any ill effects so therefore what does it matter if ABS is mandated? What are you using as your ABS yard stick? Your bike? Your direct experience? A data sample of one?

    ...based on a limited sample of one? Right there is the cardinal sin of most motorcycle flame arguments on forums the world over. You aren't even aware of your own bias's and prejudices and are arguing from within that blinkered view. But I'm going to have to rehash old ground with you aren't I? Bike ABS coulld lead to one or some or all of:
    Risk compensation
    Fail to keep up braking skills
    Braking ignorance
    Fail to ever better their braking abilities (very likely on a LAMS bike with <0.8g's best decelleration possible)
    Could lead to conclusion that "I have a safe bike, I don't need any additional training"
    Directly, simple two channel ABS can have unexpected interference in heavy braking in corners
    Doesn't provide optimum braking in some loose traction scenarios.

    If all ABS's were the same and equivalent to Panigale's/S1000RR's, it'd be a different story.

    It isn't a solution, but you're still ok with it's implementation? Does that kind of philosophy extend to every area of your life, or are you highly subjective about it?

    It takes f;ckall analysis to follow through the logic of my previous post. You can have the outcome of that deliberation for free. I'm not interested in being part of an experiment which is based on highly flawed studies and total carcentric ignorance of what ABS is supposed to be able to deliever for a single track vehicle.

    Can you show me where you have identified an actual electron? Do you need to travel to the planets to have a working understanding of astrophysics? If you want to open the door to an argument along the lines of "no direct experience means no credibility", then you only have direct experience of an ABS system and that's all you're able to comment on. But how much do you understand about it? Describe for us how it works? And how it might impact the dynamics of a motorcycle? Demonstrate your credibility about YOUR direct experience?

    Compartmentalising obviously sits well with you. ABS works on your bike with your riding style. Hooray.

    Early ABS systems on poorly suspended bikes lead to destabalisation, particularly with any kind of lean. Mandatory ABS on the bottom end of the market bikes may very well lead to similar outcomes and therefore unintended consequences.

    Just reading some EU stuff last night. ABS is expected to add 30% to the price tag of bottom end of the market bikes (about 5% to top end). The bottom end of the market is keeping EU motorcycle market alive at present... corners will need to be cut to not have the bottom end of the market implode with that kind of imposition... how can you predict what the impact will be based on your cushy experience on your bike in Australia?
  14. Im not going to direct quote you. But seriously are your eyes painted on? Do you read what i write or do you just twist and construe your argument to attack what i say given your agenda? I have said it a million times before but ill dumb it down for you because obviously your missing the point somewhere. ABS as a system is safer than no ABS system. Factors independant of the ABS system itself are a problem that need to be addressed (AS I HAVE SAID EARLIER) and something that i said is typical of governments overlooking. You raise TWO issues relating specifically to how the ABS systems operate and it being worse off than a non ABS system. I have seen studies that PROVE and studies that DISPROVE. Its a grey area. How many hours under your belt do you have on an ABS bike? Where are all the people who ride ABS bikes and feel it has degraded their safety? ABS in a lean doesnt degrade safety, it merely doesnt work how it was intended. Compare it to the baseline of no ABS. If you are at the point of engaging ABS in a corner i suspect you are screwed whether ABS or no ABS.

    Sorry probably over your head again.

    ABS system = GOOD
    ABS system in corner = no added benefit over non ABS
    Government mandate ABS then overlook ongoing training needs = BAD
    Rider behaviour change from ABS = BAD
    Ongoing rider training = GOOD
    ADR minimum ABS performance criteria = GOOD
    Mandatory ABS = IDGAF i wont lose sleep if they do, i wont lose sleep if they dont.

    Show me this EU stuff re: price rises. I would love to read it.

    Lastly where is the proof that ABS actually changes rider behaviour? Reports? Studies? Personal experiences? I call bullsh*t on that until i see proof.
  15. Dude, I quoted every miserable word and responded to it. That's more effort than you deserve. At least do me the same courtesy.

    Well there goes your glass jaw. A simple ABS simple will increase your odds of crashing if you brake late and deep while leaned over in a corner. How's that for ABS making you safer? Just because you haven't read about it safe and cushy in your ignorance, doesn't make it untrue. It's one of the principle cons against ABS. You'd think the way you're arguing with apparent knowledge, this would have been basic information. Clearly not.

    It's one of the main reasons I advocate understanding how you ride and whether it will fit in with the implementation of ABS on your bike. You don't even have that tiny bit of sophistication in your understanding.

    If you're on the edge of engaging ABS in a corner because the electronics can't work it out and those electronics would normally give you -0.8g while vertical, then ABS just put you in the shit compared to a non ABS'd bike. There's a reason it's taken 30years for sports ABS to manage these kinds of issues.

    There's another thread featuring ABS where I link to a triumph rider talking about exactly this issue.

    Another comment made in total ignorance. Seriously, go get a fugging clue. Just cause you think the world is flat, doesn't make it so. Google risk compensation, Petlzman effect... the concern is even mentioned in some OWNERS MANUALS, as has been replicated on NR.

    You're not very well informed.

    Your ignorance is clear.

    You don't care about it being mandatory, but your happy to support it based on your ignorance. Sensational.

    So what is the implementation of ABS on your bike?
  16. Which systems are these -0.8g operating limits? Now i agree that some yumcha system could be worse off than no ABS at all. But every system i know about and refer to measure decellaration of the wheel via sensors. The amount of decellaration to kick in ABS is ridiculous (ie: wheel lock occurs before the system actually kicks in). I can swing the back around by locking up the rear mid corner, and im sure if i were braking hard mid corner it would low side much like a non ABS bike. The bike behaves exactly how a non ABS bike would engage, except for low lean cornering situations where ABS may provide some benefit if you manage to stop the front from washing out. The behaviour of ABS is so non intrusive (or for better wording never engaged) until the time comes when you lock up the wheels. You never know its there. I concede that the risk compensation (i have recently come across it in regards to lane width reductions) effect will exist, but that is something that can be addressed with adequate training.

    I know its hard and most probably not likely to happen, but go and flog the crap out of an ABS equipped bike like the z1000 or speed triple for the weekend and let me know how you go.
  17. So we agree that more training is the solution? The most important safety device on a motorcycle is the rider?
  18. Just to weigh into this a bit (feeling brave :) ). I quite like ABS, but, Rob's point (if I'm reading it correctly) is that if it's MANDATORY, then cheap bike manufacturers will put in cheap versions, that will increase the cost of the bike, and possibly make it less safe. I kinda agree. $0.02
  19. That, and I wonder what kind of attitude will these low price point riders have? If the bike/scooter/moped is purely for cheap utility, will they have an attitude that cares about how skillfuly they ride? If the cheap ABS components break down, will they bother getting it repaired?

    I am wary of some significant unintended consequences and doubtful about the big safety bonus that's expected.
  20. Agree