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No one has a vision of the future.

Discussion in 'The Pub' started by Jaqhama, Jul 17, 2006.

  1. Now as some of you are probably aware (and if not I'm informing you now anyway :LOL: ) I write for a few different on-line Webzines. Internet magazines. One of them is a sci-fi/fantasy site, and it was while finishing a story today that something struck me.

    The Governments of the world don't have a plan for the future.
    In fact they don't seem to have any plans that extend further than the next election.
    I am talking in particular about motor vehicles and fossil fuels.
    There is no future for vehicles that use fossil fuels.
    For one, world wide pollution from vehicles emissions is slowly destroying the planet and the air we breathe. For two, it is not an inexhaustable supply.
    And the Governments of the world know this but are doing nothing to implement major changes.
    For example; has anyone of them stated that by a certain year in the forseeable future the production of petrol driven cars will cease and people will only be able to drive electric powered cars?
    Is any Gov in the world investing millions of dollars in designing electric powered, or alternative fuelled cars?
    They seem content to be leaving it up to private companies to spend their money on alternative powered vehicles.
    Don't think for a moment that fuel derived from grown crops will replace oil and petrol, we simply cannot grow enough of it, fast enough.
    Especially with India and China now joining the society of the car.
    Oil extraction and production is now on a knifes edge also.
    World politics and warfare affects the production and distribution of oil every day. It will only take one major war or disaster to halt the flow of oil distribution, or failing that a crisis that sends prices at the pump skyrocketing. How will car drivers be able to afford several dollars a litre?
    And if they cannot afford the fuel costs to drive to work, they will not make any money, and if they don't make any money they cannot eat.
    Don't imagine for a moment that public transport will be able to cope with a few hundred thousand extra commuters a day, it can barely function properly now.
    The world is too reliant on oil and petrol.
    Billions of dollars need to be invested by every government in the world to design an electric car that works in at least as good a fashion as a petrol driven car.
    Hundreds of thousands of re-charging points need to be set up in cities and towns where people work.
    This is not sci-fi, this is just common sense and an easily discerned vision.
    It seems highly probable that every enviromental scientist in the world has already pointed all of this out.
    I know David Suzuki and Geoffery Hawkings have.
    Even if the Governments do suddenly begin to implement changes to the petrol driven vehicle those changes need to be adhered to by the next political party in power, and not discarded as the political climate changes.
    I personally see a bleak future ahead of the human race in the next one hundred years.
    I'd like to think I am mistaken, but I do not believe I am.
    And for those of you reading this and thinking you're ok now, why worry about the future...that is exactly the way the Governments think!

  2. i listened to an interesting radio discussion on this topic which brought a dozen odd international experts on to discuss fuel alternatives, and the consensus was that there are viable alternatives under development, but with my sieve like memory i can't really remember them all. :wink:

    my dad reckons fossil fuels are like anything else in the market economy, the price of the commodity will reach a point where it's no longer considered viable and the market will at that point seek an alternative and find a solution to the shortfall. as we haven't reached that point we're plugging on with the tried and true black gold. sounds logical to me, but the crossover period might be a bit messy. :p
  3. I think the innovation will come from the private sector.

    Sure, government's fund university research programs etc.
    But something as significant as mass individual transport is quite possibly one of the largest potential markets in the world.

    If there is a dollar to be made (or multiple billion in this case) - you can be sure some smart people are being well paid to work on it.

    A couple of manufcturers have stepped out with hybrid cars - and although not cost effective NOW, may someday be worth it, out of necessity.

    These are interesting ^_^
  4. you can buy electric scooters [like moto scooters] today for $3000.

    burning coal is far worse than what the traffic is doing so thats what they are addressing first [KAYTO protocol]. the solution, nuclear power.

    the general opinion of that generation is "we are going to be long dead when that happens so why should i care?" as said by john howard some years ago.

    questions were raised and a solution was put into practice.
    and thats what they did. if you have a look at the ciriculum you will see that they are drilling the importance of the environment into their heads at a young age. by the time that generation gets there they will fix it.
  5. Quite incredible Matt...that life after the crash website pretty much confirms everything I was able to figure out by myself about what happens when oil gets scarce.
    I think a lot of people won't believe it, I think a lot of people won't WANT to believe it.
  6. I'm afraid you're wrong about Nuclear power, and about the next generation being able to fix things Jax.
    Go to this site that Matt found for us and read both pages of information.
    I already knew that oil, power, the producing of alternative forms of power and the economy were all linked, but the guy who has that website puts it down in written form in a way most people will be able to understand.
  7. Yeah, electric is great...not. Consider where you get the power from, coal power stations. Gross polluters.
    Then figure out what to do with the dead batteries, and the fact it takes electricity to make them.
    Same with solar panels, silica is mined from sand, using fossil fuels, aluminium is mined and produced using fossil fuels/coal.
    Wind power is great. So is tidal power. So are solar stills, for creating steam and therefore electricity. But then you get back to having to get the materials out of teh ground to build these things etc.
    Damming rivers is another option, and the greens are going to have to let go of their "don't touch anything" credo. It's better to lose a few rivervalleys than keep on doing what we are doing now to teh environment.
    Nuclear IS a viable short term crutch for us, the technology has come a loong way, the last commercial reactor was built 25 years ago.
    You are right about politicians, but it's always been that way.
    The simple fact is, the planet is massively overpopulated with humans, and no one wants to look at that problem, people stil think it's their right to have 4 kids, and teh government encourages it, so they don't have to pay for the future??? In two generations, we could drastically reduce the human population......

    Regards, Andrew.
  8. stuff taking two generations, just leave it to those lovable middle easterners and their wacky 'living in harmony is so overrated' philosophy, they'll cut the population in no time, and provide exciting tv footage of stuff exploding every night on the news, it's all win-win.
  9. What about naturally made ethanol?
  10. Always assuming, of course, that oil IS a finite resource, and that therefore those who have it can hold the rest of the world to ramsom because of its 'scarcity'.

    If it isn't, then more money needs to be spent to find more...

    And then you've got 1/3 of the world's population, India and China, becoming mobile at a faster rate than resources can meet, and it's a bleak picture.

    A circuit-breaker is needed.....
  11. Those of you suggesting we find more oil fields and using ethanol need to go to the site Matt and then I listed above.
    Take the time to read thru both pages, that will answer your questions about alternative fuel sources and oil exploration.
  12. problem with ethanol / biodesil is that we dont have enough agricultural land on the planet to satisfy the worlds needs, also it only gives a return of 1.5:1 (ie you get 1.5 times the energy back that it costs to manufacture) unlike oil which has a return of 30:1.

    as to finding more fields, it costs more to explore/extract new oil fields than the fields will actually produce, so no oil company is going to take a loss on it.

    basically what the report is saying is that we will reach our oil peak in the next 5-10 years and from then on it will be a down hill spiral with more and more governments going to war over what little resources are left (hmmm, and we wonder why the coalition of the willing are in iraq)

    just a 4.5-5% production drop in barrels of oil per day could see the price rise up to $200usd a barrel (same cost growth as in the 70's with the OPEC scare)
  13. Sluglie has worked it out.

    The question you need to be asking yourselves is...

    Assuming for a moment that the grimmest scenario is the one that eventuates and petrol becomes so expensive that you cannot afford to buy it, even if it is still available...how will you get to work if you live outside bicycling or horse riding distance?
    Trains and buses will not be able to cope with the hundreds of thousands of new commuters.
    If you don't work you don't get paid, which means you cannot buy food etc etc.

    I think it's a reality on the horizon that no one wants to think about.

    I find the whole scenario quite interesting actually and have been contemplating different survival options. Some of them seem quite viable. I won't mention them yet because I'm curious to see what others have to say.

    Cheers: Jaq.
  14. im going to add my 2c, i know you mentioned this briefly at como.

    at the end of the day, if they can invent a way to mobilise a 2 wheeled vehicle like our current motorcycles THAT will be the future. its that technology that is added to a motorcycle that will be converted into a market for a car.

    ultimatly we need.
    small size of motor
    power & speed

    the system will need to be efficient and reliable to deliver those things.
  15. Dante...ah see I know you didn't read the oil link mate.

    We're not talking about just cars now (although I admit I was when I started the thread) Oil is needed to make just about everything in our society, I did not realise that until Matt posted the link above.
  16. absolutly jaq, petroloum products are there too, but lets take out the need to burn it to power ourselves.

    at the end of the day if they can build something i can ride, vola.
  17. They did mate, they're called bicycles and horses. :LOL: :LOL:
  18. not bicycles though, no rubber for tyres or brake pads, no lubrication for moving parts, no plastic components of any kind
  19. Not necessarily. The products needed for additives here can be sourced from coal. In any case, bicycles were around before plastics and you can use plant based lubricants if necessary.