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Korean Crisis

Discussion in 'The Pub' at netrider.net.au started by Sheeth, Nov 25, 2010.

  1. What do you guys think -

    Who's in the wrong?

    How likely is this to develop into a larger conflict, or will it just fade away?

    If it does develop, how big will it get, will China come to the Norths aid?


    Frankly i recon the North Koreans are crazy, I wouldn't be surprised if they did something else really stupid.

    As for the South, much less crazy! They make motorbikes for farks sake, but they don't mind flexing there muscles on a disputed border, (pretty daft really,) and there always more than happy to bomb back as they did on Tuesday, again not the smartest thing in the quest for peace.

    I'm not too worried, unless something else happens in the next week.

    Then I'll be poohing my pants!

  2. The south is daft for protecting there border from a crazed dictatorship and firing back?
    If they didn't the North would just get worse and worse, appeasement didnt go too well in the 1930's
  3. Its just Sabre rattling, showing his successor and youngest son Kim Jong Un how you do foreign affairs. It probably means the succession is close though, Kim Jong Il is rumored to have cancer. But then rumors abound about North Korea. :)
  4. We get fired at with tracer rounds as a warning if we fly over the border into North Korea during our daily visits to S.Korea, Incheon International Airport. The border being a mere 18km (10 air nautical miles) north.
    Any aircraft which disobeys this warning will be fired upon, with live ammunition and subsequently shot down.
    The N.Koreans are CRAZY and that part of the world is one of the many regions in Asia which makes me nervous.
  5.  Top
  6. Seriously, what is it with that Sarah Palin woman ???
    When will she just accept she's not suitable, nor sufficiently IQ-capable for the role she constantly seeks !
    Another case of 'ONLY IN AMERICA' !!!
  7. but she "purdy" and in touch with yokelville USA

  8. Thats full on mate!

    No doubt there bonkers, it'll be interesting to see what happens over the next few days.
  9. North Korea is absolutely desperate. Their 'economy' is on the brink of total collapse and they see the only way of surviving is to drag the rest of the world to the negotiating table where their last card will be to demand financial aid under the 'threat' of war.

    Right now they want someone to listen to them, and no-one is listening.

    China has wanted North Korea to remain as a buffer between democratic South Koea and their own people, and as a military buffer in case of American adventurism.

    But that policy is costing China trade-wise and they may back away, particularly if NK continues to act like rabid lunatics.

    It's not beyond possibilty that China might decide to dismantle NK themselves and set up their own puppet administration, one that is not out of control.
    As China is growing more militarily adventurous that could eventually be an even bigger problem for SK, Japan and the US.
  10. The US want to disable N. Korea's nuke program. After Iraq the negative world reaction to an unprovoked attack would worry even the world's only superpower. Solution: Arrange a NK vs SK confrontation, giving the perfect excuse for a few airstrikes in support of your S.Korean allies, one of which just happens to be on Yong Byong (sp?).[/conspiracy theory]

    I don't really go for this sort of thing normally, but it does seem weirdly coincidental with the recently released photos of N.Korea's centrifuges.
  11. No need to shy away from tin foil hats, Id be surprised if the US wasnt involved.
  12. saddam hid his WMD in NK!
  13. I'm backing SK. I think the previous poster was spot on, it's just Kim Snr flexing his anaemic muscles before a proper handover of power.

    That being said, if NK does have nukes I think the States should JDAM the place.
  14. They do though, and frankly i think thats a good exuse not to JDAM the place, a nation as crazy as these dudes might actually use them if they think their state is threatened
  15. Send lots of JDAMS then.
  16. Nothing will happen..nothing that matters to us that is. The Yanks can say what they want...the fact is they wont 'go in'..because NK can fight back...and has China on it's side. The US wont risk losing such a powerful trading partner.
    Can the US even afford to start another fight it cant win? Look at how pointless the 50's Korean war was..as soon as the US left NK went and took what it wanted anyway. Come to think of it..since WW2 name one conflict that the US has won?...ermmm...none,seriously look it up.
    Geez they have been in the Middle East now longer than they were fighting the war in Europe..with no end in sight...and Iraq and Afghanistan are not what you would call powerful military nations. North Korea on the other hand is...sure there leader is a crackpot...but the US would be stupid to try it on with them.
    A pre-emptive strike to take out NK's nuclear facilities would not only spread radioactive waste over civilians but it would surely trigger an escalation that would make the Middle East conflict look like a pre school squabble in a sand pit.
  17. Thing is, it's a funny situation to be in.

    Kim apparently lacks complete control over his armies. The Generals need to be convinced his son can take over. I said this was just a pre-emptive internal politics move to do just that before the "expert" analysts got on to the mainstream media.

    If the North was really serious and prepared for 'go time', they have 16,000+ artillery and rocket batteries aimed at Seoul. I visited Seoul when the underground nuclear testing was on - the streets were busy with cars but let me tell you the place seemed deserted. Most street-side stores were closed, empty taxis, very few people walking the streets.

    There are a few problems for the Americans here.

    1) A ground invasion won't see them gain anything, because South Korea is a legitimately formed Government and would take the land, unless, by some 'unfortunate and unforeseeable event' the country was dissolved. No tin foil hat... :|

    2) A remote attack by sea and air would take too much time for the USA. North Korea has shown the capacity to go underground with their attacks, literally. Can they risk this, given they have spent so little time building an airforce, focusing instead on ground forces & arguably, limp-wristed attempts at ICBM technology?

    3) A remote attack by the USA would also not gain them anything, they need a physical presence.

    4) The North has an organised military that will wipe out civilians to fuel itself in a time of war - the US does not have the resources to combat this. They are over deployed as it is, that is, with the exception to intercontinental attacks launched from sea. The US navy is still on "russian invasion" mode, it's hilariously under-utilised.

    This is all going to be a very unpredictable situation - it may well be the first case of wide-spread use of mass-destruction weaponry.
  18. Agree with your post Rabbito. NK as well as China have their other communist partner Russia also on it's side.

    I think the US needs to pick on somebody their own size instead of picking on little nations that can't fight back as you mentioned.
  19. I disagree with which country's point of view you're looking at. China has a great deal to lose by getting involved; they are currently a growing economic superpower, with a great deal invested in exports. Plus, they would be losing some of their imports, which could well have a significant impact on it's own. Having a buffer between it and SK/USA isn't worth losing that much -- in fact, they'd be better off seizing NK themselves.

    Also, the campaign in Afghanistan is complicated by the warlords. It, and Iraq also suffer the problem of non-conventional warfare; guerilla tactics, hiding among civilians, etc.

    In North Korea, it would most likely be an army against army deal, which is much easier to win outright. And NK would lose; they'd be fighting pretty much the rest of the world, and have no allies who'd be be of help to them (Venezuela is on the other side of the world, and hardly going to balance forces out, China might provide some materiel, but would not opening support them or directly pitch into the fight). Even if nuclear weapons were brought into it, there's a fair chance that would be viewed as even more reason to remove them as a threat -- its one thing to have a country throwing its weight around an probably possessing nuclear weapons, its another to have the above and know they're willing to use said nuclear weapons).