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Australian Wide Road Motorcycle Fatality Rate

Discussion in 'Politics, Laws, Government & Insurance' started by Kaer, Jan 9, 2006.

  1. I had some time last week, and was starting to get a little spooked personally by a few near misses + mates going down. So I decided to look into the numbers myself. Anyone who wants to analyze the numbers from ATSB, go ahead. I'm no trained statisician, so my number crunching can be way off. Go to http://www.atsb.gov.au/ and query the database's there to get raw data.

    Anyway, posted most of the following in another forum, so thought I'd post it here as well.

    If any of the following sounds harsh, I apologise. Just trying to analyze facts. My sympathies are with those who know riders who were injured or killed in the previous year.


    Not including Decembers data, in 2005, Motorcycle related deaths were up 20% on previous 12 months, which comes down to 38 extra rider related deaths.

    Sounds like a hell of a lot, correct?

    But I've been trying to track down what the % increase in licensed riders is, and I've got a strong suspicion that there has been around a 20% increase in rider licensing in the last 12 months.

    Why? Talk to the Rider Training guys, talk to the RTA. It's like a 12 week wait at the moment to do your L's.

    I can't get an exact figure, so I'm guessing there. I'll prob try the RTA to see if they do have those figures on hand.

    But then a large portion of that would be scooters. And it's been 5 years at least in NSW since there has been a scooter related death.

    Check out http://www.atsb.gov.au/road/statistics/current_road_fatality_statistics.aspx

    And be prepared to crunch some serious numbers and do some analysis with the raw data.

    I was doing some of this last week.

    The "FATAL ROAD CRASH DATABASE" is an interesting tool. Though extremely restricted in the amount of data you can pull out at a time.

    Stage 1 - Remove unlicensed riders & drunk riders from accident reports.
    Why? These numbers are extremely over-represented in accidents.

    Still, the other thing I was finding, is a lot more accidents happen on the weekend than during the week.

    Anyhow, the 2005 summary will be out soon enough, and that's the one to go through. I'm no statistician, so was doing this all for my own interest sake.

    Mainly as you can manipulate the numbers to show anything.

    Like, in 2004, 196 motorcyclists were killed. But 223 pedestrians were killed. Doesn't that seem like walking across the street is more dangerous than riding? (Then you work out the actually % of riders vs % of pedestrians killed, and yah, it isn't).

    Somewhere there is also a serious injury database listing.

    The scary figure I pulled out was the fatality rate for bikes is 5 per 10,000 (or 1 in 2000) registered motorbikes. For cars 1 per 10,000. But again the unlicensed/drunk riders throws those figures off dramatically.

    And if you want to s*** your pants, take a look at the serious injury stats which get real scary. (For riders, 120 serious injuries per 10,000 registered bikes per year. Vs 10 per 10,000 registered cars per year).

    Anyhow, rather than being all gloom & doom, it's more interesting to go through this and try and work out if there is an increase or not, and if so what's causing it. And then trying to work out what to suggest to the powers that be to sort it out.

    Ain't got to stop me from riding by any means.

    As I told the cop on Sunday who told me "I don't know how you can ride, it's so dangerous".

    My response, "I don't know how you can be a cop, it's so dangerous."
  2. Interesting data, tried looking at all motorcycle fatalities between the hours of 1 and 3am - significant spike for both Saturday and Sunday in 60kph zones (13 deaths for each day). Suggests this is definately not a good time to ride.
  3. Somewhat interesting is that there has been an increase of 20.2% of the number of motorcycles on the road from 2001 to 2005 according to census statistics.

    Would be interesting to see the motorcycle death numbers between 2001 and 2005 and see if they correlate.
  4. I read in the Age the other day that motorcycle fatalities were up 30% on last year...

    Couldn't find the article to post it.
  5. 1am - 3am? Make sure you take out the drunk riders from the queries. Include drunk drivers though.

    It's frigging amazing on how many riders, ride while drunk.
  6. Not including december's stats, it's up 19.9% Australia wide.

    The 30% though, might be just for Victoria.

    BTW, it's those news articles which is why I went to source. Was trying to work out for myself what was going on.
  7. Couldn't work out how to eliminate drunk drivers/riders (edit - was using the query database tool rather than looking through the stats) but elaborating further found that the majority of late night weekend motorcycle fatalities were single vehicle accidents, male, and aged 18-19.
  8. How many are actual single vehicle accidents, from experience I know that just because the other vehicle didn't hit you and stop, doesn't mean they never caused the accident :twisted:

  9. Good response :LOL:

    Reminds me of a prisoner who asked me "Are you prepared to die
    for your job?"

    I replied, "When was the last time an officer died on duty?? I think thats
    a question you should rather be asking yourself mate"

    He didnt reply.
  10. Good to see ya $50 levy is achieving some fantastic results.

    N O T !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  11. Forget about road deaths, its spinals that bother me.

    Got any stats for that?
  12. What I'd like to know is:

    Out of all accidents involving motorcycles, what percentage are found to be the motorcyclists fault?
  13. I honestly think about 75% of accidents would be the either the rider on their own or something the rider could have fairly easily avoided.

    Hate to be harsh but its pretty rare that an accident happens that you can't avoid at all.

    Don't forget for every person that has an accident with another vechicle involved another one of us die in the twisties on our own.
  14. You can be as harsh as you want. But what you're saying can be disputed.

    When the MCC of NSW researched this a couple of years ago, one of Guy Stanford's problems was getting the information. It seems that there isn't much data on single motorcycle fatalities where there are no witnesses. Aside from rider error, there are any number of factors that could cause an unavoidable crash. Hit runs, wildlife, poor road surface, (which includes oil spills, leaves, broken asphalt surface, etc.) poorly marked roadside edges (particularly for night time riding), and so on.

    It'd be so easy for the investigating cop to tick the box marked "speed" or something else that may not even be related to what happened. The rider may have simply been unskilled or incompetant. I believe that it's the latter that is the biggest contributor to motor vehicle crashes. Someone gets outside of his comfort zone and stuffs up big time.

    That's the problem that motorcycle lobby groups have to overcome. It's hard, as those who make the rules tend to go down the path that's easiest for them. If a road is dangerous, it's far easier to erect lower speed limit signs than it is to actually look at it and figure out what's dangerous about it and fix it.

    While I detest the $50 levy that we have to pay here in Vic, there are some projects that seem to be getting a positive outcome from it. Not all of them I agree with (I don't like the idea of having to pay to seal someone's driveway where gravel is spat onto the road - that should be borne by the driveway owner) but some seem worthwhile.
  15. Reckon you're probably right on that one, no point motorcyclists blaming a car for pulling out in front of them if they're pulling 100kph+ on one wheel in a school zone (okay so that's probably the most extreme example). There are some inept drivers out there but let's face it there's some pretty bad riders out there too.
  16. The stats regarding single vehicle crashes with bikes suggests that rider error is a significant factor. However, with multiple vehicle crashes, the car driver is usually at fault at around 70% of the time.

    What I don't know is what the percentage rate of single vehicle crashes to multi-vehicle crashes is.

    For crashes that occur on the Reefton or on similar roads, it's a no brainer. But where there's a mix of bikes and other vehicles, dunno.
  17. The ATSB figures actually do show motorcycle deaths per 10,000 registered bikes which shows that this figure has been steadily dropping from 14.2 in 1980 to 4.95 in 2004 (so clearly motorcycles/riders are actually getting safer). Also interesting to note that the average age of motorcycle fatalities has been steadily increasing from 25 in 1989 to 33 in 2004.
  18. Just to clear it up I wasn't trying to be harsh or saying that all bike riders are reckless idiots. The vast majority are not. Also just because you DO have an accident doesn't mean you are a terrible rider, sometimes these things just happen.

    The point I was trying to make is there is a difference between "At fault" and being "Reckless". If your riding at night and there is "poorly marked roadside edges" then what are you doing riding at a speed that you cannot see far enough ahead, its hardly an uncontrollable mistake. I would class that as "At fault" but in the real world it isn't so reckless.
  19. Swann Insurance suggested that 3 in 4 of claims on policies were for "Not At Fault" accidents. If that was the case, only 25% of motorcyclists making claims are at fault, not the majority at all.

    Clearly not all accidents result in a claim, though.