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Are road toll stats corrected for population growth??

Discussion in 'Research, Studies, and Data' started by hornet, Jan 2, 2016.

  1. Duncan Gay's on radio this morning banging on about how 38 more people were killed on the roads last year than in the year before, but surely there were more than 38 more drivers, riders, and pedestrians on the road than in the year before?? Surely against the background of population growth, the road toll should anyways be dropping????

  2. SHHH that's like glaring plot holes in action movies your not supposed to mention it.

    We need to focus on the 38 not the hundreds of extras that are joing the road system every year.
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  3. Not corrected, it is one of Goverment and Police lies to the public.

    NSW Total Registration 2014: 5,102,352
    NSW Total Registration 2015: 5,247,199

    NSW Fatalities 2014: 284
    NSW Fatalities 2015: 324

    NSW Fatality rate/100,000 registrations 2014: 5.56
    NSW Fatality rate/100,000 registrations 2015: 6.17

    So about 0.6 person/100,000 fatality change when corrected. Any statistician would say that was statistical noise.
    I believe there has been some revision to the numbers to bring them down since below statistics were published which makes the situation even less favourable to the government's rhetoric.


    I am a firm believer that intelligent, fact based discussion would be far better in this area than the standard government/police cries of anguish and hand wringing., Start treating the public as adults and stop talking down to them as children.
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  4. Now, to be fair, if your going to stipulate that it's lies and rhetoric then you also have to adjust for other factors - not just registration. Qty of vehicles registered is itself just statistical noise and has no meaning against road toll. The question itself is irrelevant, IMHO.

    You want to factor contributory factors towards road toll then you should be looking at total km's travelled (increasing or decreasing?), qty of vehicles on the road with advanced occupant protection devices - eg. 4+ airbags, ABS - (increasing or decreasing), qty of roadside 'furniture' involvement/cause (increasing or decreasing). These are factors that will provide more than statistical noise to the road toll, not qty of registrations.

    IMHO, road toll figures provided have become so distorted and irrelevant that I stopped listening some time ago.
    • Agree Agree x 4
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  5. 38 more deaths on the road... It looks like the concentration on speeding has been a failure once again. How many people have to die before the government changes its methods?
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  6. And why, apart from the fact that they are killed on the road, are pedestrians counted in the road toll? They're not in charge of a vehicle, they're not registered or covered by third party insurance, so there's no financial implications in their deaths..
    A couple of years ago a dumb bogan on his way home drunk from the local pub laid down to sleep it off in the middle of the southbound lane of the Princes Highway, near where I live. He got counted in the road toll, and, worse yet, the RMS installed yet another set of traffic lights at the spot, despite the fact that there's just one minor intersecting road there.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  7. The road toll is no indication of road safety, its just a magical number police ministers like to magnify to justify their term in office or for new speed cameras.
    Still plenty of uncounted people who were seriously injured, out of work and will never be the same after being involved in an accident.

    If they wanted to make more of a point they should broadcast the innocent bystanders lost, not the drunk leaner with 7 mates in the back doing 160km/h in a stolen commodore. Even better ask insurance companies for some statistics and publish up some demographics of what group is getting safer and those more dangerous.
    I'm genuinely amazed more people aren't killed on the roads when the governments allow almost anyone to drive with nothing more than a licence from a cereal box.
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  8. When duncan and marge from the centre of road saftey comes on telly I have to leave the room as my blood pressure starts to rise, don't want to stroke out again
    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. It's always been a raw absolute for as long as they've published a count. I guess when it's going the right way, they can pat themselves on the back. When the solutions actually made a difference, that was fair enough. But maybe we are approaching a point of diminishing returns?
    Clearly, even massive advances in vehicle engineering are being outweighed by population increase or kilometres travelled.
    It's hard to explain an increase in the raw count as a relative, and even harder to prove that your strategies are still working. Hence the angst.
    I reckon the next step will be heavy social engineering to reduce overall exposure.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  10. aren't peds covered by your Green Slip?

    NSW road toll hits three-year high
    A jump in the number of drunk pedestrians being hit by cars has been blamed for contributing to the highest road toll in NSW in three years.
    The NSW Government has released its latest figures, which show 348 people died on NSW roads in 2015, up by 41 in 2014.
    Of those, 61 deaths were pedestrians and that figure was up by 20 from 2014.

    yup, our society is getting drunker and dumber... :(
  11. That's 324 coppers that have to knock on someones' door. I know in the Hunter area, 3 fellas died after 12 hour shifts in the mines then driving home and starting again the next day and didn't make it...... If you would like some NSW Roads and Maritime stats, go to their website, hover over "about" click "access to information" then left column "access to Roads and Maritime services data" then far right under "Related Sections" click "Statistics". Some very interesting stuff.
    • Informative Informative x 1
  12. This is why I wait until I get home to listen to the news propaganda instead of tuning in whilst driving. If I'm going to stroke out I want it to be in my home, and not on the road. It's just my little way of assisting in the reduction of the road toll. ;)
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    • Funny Funny x 1
  13. I think we should be looking at it in terms of the number of individual trips that are made each year.

    If we assume that each of those registered vehicles made an average of 10 trips per week, then that makes the chance of a fatality per vehicle trip 0.00001%. I think this puts into perspective the silliness of trying to take meaning from anything less than a 50% variation in anual road toll statistic. And the equal silliness of trying to control it.
  14. Lies, Damed lies and Statistics. Life is 100% terminal. In light of your assertion, ibast, concern with statistical concerns does seem a bit like pecking around the edges.

    When we look at the liberties with facts and logic that the spin doctors take in creating the latest PC ethic over almost any issue, it is not hard to see why we often get the impression that there is no truth and people are free to believe whatever they want which they do.

    We are well past the threshold of diminishing returns with statistical claims wrought by institutions with an agenda where people find them incredible.
  15. It has already started. It has been a long running campaign to have speeding viewed as just as unacceptable as drink driving.
  16. Yet they won't outlaw these types of shifts and leave fatigue management up to companies. Easier to regulate the little guys isn't it....
  17. Grrila, I agree, but see ibasts's comment. I believe the next step will be to make non-essential journeys socially unacceptable. The fewer kilometres travelled, the fewer crashes. Pretty simple formula for a pretty simple mission statement.
  18. there's no money in that
  19. Congestion charges, pay per kilometre...
  20. They've already made progress on that front too! You only have to see the amount of police presence at any kind of street meet and automotive shows these days. All pretty much designed to put of road enthusiasts from gathering together. I remember 15 years ago you would get 100s of cars and some bikes gather on a Saturday night. There were some idiots at that point but within a couple of years the police cleared them up which in my opinion was a good thing. Until, they kept up the presence at what was now quite a peaceful gathering of enthusiasts in a public space and regularly setup road blocks for defects. This would be okay in general however this was being used as a tool to inconvenience attendees by having them line up for I kid you not 5 hours to inspect every single car. Failed attitude tests for rightly so irritated people would result in even standard cars having been given defect notices for trivial items. This was all designed to break up a large gathering of people perceived as some sort of threat.

    I am not into clubs, pubs, drinking or drugs. This was my weekend entertainment as a young guy and I lost a bit of respect from the people in blue everyone we were moved on for no reason other than being parked up in a public space with as little as 3 cars or 100 cars. Constantly stopped for rbt's or roadworthy's until you give up and go home. I was brought up to respect police and I did. I even trusted them but as you get older you realise agendas come out even in those that are meant to be neutral and fair.